Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.752320 0.865476 0.986323 1.124591 1.278006 1.442602 1.632130
2025-02-23 0.552480 0.696869 0.862203 1.064015 1.302109 1.572451 1.900911
2025-03-02 0.398455 0.552391 0.741471 0.987294 1.294644 1.662288 2.130986
2025-03-09 0.305657 0.465600 0.676006 0.966403 1.349405 1.829461 2.467843
2025-03-16 0.230605 0.387809 0.609739 0.934860 1.386480 1.978172 2.796427
2025-03-23 0.187275 0.346126 0.585677 0.956121 1.494832 2.228177 3.276598
2025-03-30 0.138627 0.285463 0.523878 0.914893 1.511825 2.357363 3.607858
2025-04-06 0.105952 0.243087 0.482413 0.897403 1.560001 2.532902 4.015811
2025-04-13 0.079404 0.204425 0.439604 0.870967 1.590797 2.685052 4.401438
2025-04-20 0.063616 0.182291 0.421241 0.881748 1.679986 2.929582 4.937073
2025-04-27 0.049516 0.159239 0.396523 0.877533 1.743635 3.139219 5.433992
2025-05-04 0.039618 0.142609 0.380996 0.887412 1.831285 3.391984 6.011533
2025-05-11 0.030729 0.125664 0.362475 0.891427 1.913703 3.649836 6.625768
2025-05-18 0.022154 0.105417 0.331753 0.866407 1.941417 3.820315 7.113717
2025-05-25 0.014884 0.084746 0.294190 0.820417 1.924539 3.913909 7.483366
2025-06-01 0.011016 0.073610 0.277678 0.817311 1.989381 4.153104 8.107687
2025-06-08 0.007764 0.062288 0.257155 0.801281 2.026462 4.345409 8.663998
2025-06-15 0.006222 0.057728 0.255202 0.829392 2.156752 4.714775 9.543000
2025-06-22 0.004093 0.047468 0.231819 0.799746 2.161958 4.853433 10.028022
2025-06-29 0.002819 0.040597 0.217100 0.789584 2.207666 5.070367 10.661385
2025-07-06 0.001830 0.033911 0.200207 0.770000 2.229720 5.242527 11.222131
2025-07-13 0.001345 0.030638 0.195249 0.783161 2.327453 5.567171 12.073030
2025-07-20 0.000913 0.026751 0.186036 0.781994 2.391219 5.827778 12.817349